THUNDERING BLURB

ANDREW GARDA'S ENDLESS TAKES ON NFL AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Posts Tagged Thomas Jones

Braylon Edwards to Jets – Impact

Oct 7

Posted by admin in Uncategorized | No Comments

Next to the news that Michael Crabtree is set to be a 49er, the Jets acquiring Braylon ‘AH THE BALL SCARES ME’ Edwards for Wide Receiver Chansi Stuckey, Linebacker Jason Trusnik and two picks (thought to be a 3rd and 5th-round pick) was the most surprising news of the morning.

Braylon Edwards Hopes to Regain His Game in NY

Braylon Edwards Hopes to Regain His Game in NY

Rumor has it the 3rd can become a 2nd if Edwards hits certain escalators. Rumor also has it those escalators are ridiculously high.

Frankly, this is something GM Mike Tannenbaum and owner Woody Johnson have wanted for a long time. To me, this wasn’t necessary. Sure, the Jets could use a WR to pair with Jerricho Cotchery.

Right now though, the Jets have offensive line issues not wide receiver issues. Maybe Edwards will pull defenses off the offensive line. He wasn’t doing it in Cleveland, but maybe it will be different in the Big Apple.

While this is a ‘Win Now’ move for the Jets, I honestly think it was one that was far from critical. Add to it the fact that theoretically the Jets could lose him in 2010 and now you’re renting a cement-handed wide receiver with attitude.

How is that an improvement?

More than likely 2010 will be an uncapped year and the Jets will keep him for a relative song. You can expect Edwards to chirp all off season if that’s the case.

They can’t give Edwards any more money before they deal with Leon Washington’s requests. Washington has done everything they wanted – and quietly – without a new contract.

Edwards won’t care, but Jet management should.

Suffice to say, I am leery of this trade. The Jets may not have given up much but there is a lot more at stake than two players and a pair of draft picks.

What about the players themselves? What is the impact on them?  Let’s take a look.

Braylon Edwards

Well aside from having to be more careful in NYC picking fights than he was in Cleveland, Edwards has a chance at turning his faltering career around.

Edwards had one fantastic season in 2007, but has been unable to recapture his numbers (80 catches, 1,289 yards, 16 TDs). That’s partly on the offense but Edwards shares a huge chunk of that blame.

Sure Edwards has ability – but he’s dropped so many passes at this point, how much do you trust him?

Add to it that he is going to an offense that is supposed to run the ball early and often, despite struggling to do so of late. This is not a ‘bring it and fling it’ offense where he will log a ton of targets, especially not with Cotchery and tight end Dustin Keller there.

Edwards has a chance at redemption but limit your expectations. He has to learn a new offense, one that is not receiver focused and overcome his dropped pass issue.

I think Edwards  remains  a WR3 on a fantasy team, with the hope he can crawl up to WR2 status.

Jerricho Cotchery

The upside is, Cotchery has someone across from him who will attract some attention from defenses in a way nobody – save perhaps Keller – does right now. This could help free him up for some better opportunities down the line.

However, we are still talking about an offense which right now is throwing only 50% of the time (110 pass attempts vs 112 rushing attempts), a stat I expect will change to favor the run more as the season progresses.

Fact is, when the Jets get the run going, they will ride it. We just saw what happens when Sanchez needs to throw too often.

So Cotchery, while he may be open more, will be sharing targets with one more legitimate receiver.

I think the quality of his catches may go up (more yards after catch, better percentage of targets caught) but the quantity may suffer.

He should remain a solid WR2 – even as Edwards learns the offense Cotchery will remain a reliable choice for Sanchez.

Leon Washington and Thomas Jones

Add Shonn Greene in here if you’d like, but however you look at it the run game is a shambles.

Now the offensive line has struggled mightily, as I talked about in my Trendspotting Article last week, and part of that is just bad play on their part.

However with a rookie quarterback at the helm, they have been facing  many stacked fronts. A defense will sell out to stop the run and make the rookie beat them through the air.

Sanchez has looked very good at times, but he isn’t scaring defenses. So opposing defenses continue to stack the line.

And wouldn’t you know it, the run game struggles.

Both Jones and Washington (who is sent up the gut like he’s Jones way too often) are being met in the backfield or at the line of scrimmage often.

If Edwards can become a credible threat while helping Cotchery get open, then defenses will have to ease up on he stacked fronts.

Jones and Washington could find their running lanes a little less cluttered which will help them be more productive.

Cleveland

It’s hard to really have much of an effect on something that is already not worth most fantasy owners notice.

But there is some value here and taking Edwards away will affect it both negatively and positively.

Rookie wide receiver Mohamed Massaquoi has emerged as a legitimate #1 in Cleveland. The big question here is, will he find himself open as much with Edwards gone?

Certainly his targets will go up. If you had him as a WR4, he will probably stay there though since the overall offense is lackluster at best and he has nobody to pull coverage off him.

Jerome Harrison played very well subbing for Jamal Lewis and will probably keep the majority of the carries. Without Edwards there, he may see some more stacked fronts but really, can it get worse?

No team is waltzing out to meet Cleveland, shuddering in fear of the awesomeness of their wide receivers anyway.

Harrison probably won’t suffer too much for Edwards’ absence though again, you’re talking about a player whose offense is not very good. Harrison is a great bye week filler in the right match-up and an OK RB3 at times.

That won’t change.

Something to watch might be what happens behind Mohamed Massaquoi. Someone may emerge to fill the void left by Edwards.

Will it be Josh Cribbs? Rookie Brian Robiskie? Journeyman Mike Furrey?

Looking at the overall stats, Furrey has been more – and more consistently – than any other Cleveland wide receiver.

Massaquoi may be the defacto WR1, but don’t be surprised if Furrey emerges as the WR2 in that offense.

It may not be worth more than a bench spot on your Fantasy Roster, but it’s something to track.

Even from the worst situations, sometimes value will emerge.

Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

Trendspotting: Thomas Jones & Leon Washington

Oct 1

Posted by admin in NFL, New York Jets, fantasy football, running backs | No Comments

NFL_new_york_jets_1[1]Before Brett Favre came to town in 2008, the New York Jets had built their offense to be one that would center on – though not exclusively – the ground game.
 
However, the moment Favre arrived, the Jets morphed into a more evenly balanced attack. Yet despite that, Thomas Jones had his fourth straight 1,000 yard season and his first with double digit touchdowns (Jones had 13 on the ground and a pair receiving).
 
Meanwhile, if you look at his partner in the backfield, most onlookers felt that Leon Washington was criminally underused by the former head coach, Eric Mangini. 
 
Ryan has brought a new attitude to Gang Green

Ryan has brought a new attitude to Gang Green

When new Head Coach Rex Ryan came on board he promised to utilize the offensive line to run block, as it was designed to do. He promised more Leon Washington (so much so that Peter King predicted 300 touches) and drafted a rookie quarterback who would need an effective ground game to keep him from having to win with his arm. 

 
In fact, since Ryan came from the Baltimore Ravens – who had just shepherded their own rookie, quarterback Joe Flacco – confidence was high that this could be a very good season for he Jets rushing attack.
 
After three weeks, what do we have? The Jets are tied for the tenth ranked rushing offense, though that’s largely skewed by game one. Leon Washington has barely topped 40 carries in three games and only has seven receptions. Thomas Jones has had only seven more carries than Washington and only 17 more yards.
 
Both Jets fans and fantasy owners are left wondering what is happening and how much longer it will last.
 
For today’s Trendspotting, let’s take a stab at answering these questions.
 
First let’s look at some hard facts.
 
As ineffective as the Jets run game has seemed, they’ve actually run a ton. They’ve run the ball 104 times versus the 83 times they have passed, a percentage of 56% of the time. A bit more balanced than we anticipated but still not a minuscule amount.
 
In fact, their 104 attempts put them second behind fellow New York team, the Giants. While neither team is totalling extreme numbers, the Jets rank 11th in total ground yards (The GMen are 8th).
 
Where the Jets are struggling is in yards per carry. They are at 3.8 ypc, ranking 22nd in the league. While you might throw the 3.8 out with a mere ‘it’s too early to count it yet’, with the exception of the Giants all the other teams with over 100+ carries are significantly better per carry.
 

TEAM

ATTEMPTS

YARDS PER ATTEMPT

DENVER BRONCOS

102

4.7

MIAMI DOLPHINS

102

4.7

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

102

5.0

BALTIMORE RAVENS

101

4.7
 
Now of course, it’s just three weeks and there are teams who came close to 100 carries like the Detroit Lions (90) with similar YPC (in Detroit’s case, 3.5).
 
Putting aside the small sample size, that’s a significant drop off from the 4.7 that three other 100+ carry teams have the the Jets’ 3.8.
 
So while they are running the ball often, they aren’t doing it effectively.
 
Individually, the yards per carry actually look fine for both backs. Thomas Jones has a 3.77 while Leon Washington has a 4.00 yards per carry.
 
Respectable, right?
 
Well here’s a closer look which tells you things may not be what the appear.
 
 
Watching Thomas Jones the first two weeks didn’t excite me much. Frankly, he looked slow and plodding. He didn’t seem to hit the holes when they were there. 
 
Even in Week 1, when he totalled 107 yards and two touchdowns (his only two thus far this season) Jones looked bad for much of the game. He broke two big runs – one 39 yard touchdown road and a second 39 yard run where he cut back across the defense, who had over-pursued too far to one side of the field.
 
I hate to play ‘taking away run X’ but in order to get a sense of what Jones is doing, you really have to. Because looking at the game as a whole, Jones didn’t look good at all and his yards per carry was awful for most of the game. Same with Week 2. 
 
The majority of runs for Jones are for one or two yards. Occasionally he gets an eight or ten yard run – even more rarely he gets a big gain like the 39 yard runs from Week 1. 
 
Raye's departure could be hurting Jones

Raye's departure could be hurting Jones

For sure, part of this is due to the departure of running back coach Jimmy Raye, who left to be the Offensive Coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers. Under Raye, Jones had two of his most productive years ever. When a coach like that leaves, it certainly can have an affect on a player.

 
Of course, another part of this is could be Jones.
 
I’ll give this to Jones – he is not mailing it in. He may look a little slower than in the past, but he’s fighting hard.
 
Jones’ biggest issue might be – and here’s a shock – the offensive line.
 
As I said earlier, watching him on television for two weeks left me less than enthused. I got even more concerned when I saw Jones in person against the Titans in Week 3 but it wasn’t just because he looked a little slow.
 
Granted the Titans are a great team against the run even at 0-3. Record aside, they are ranked second in the NFL against the rush and they found ways to meet Jones at the line all day. The Jets line really struggled with the inside stunts the Tennessee unit threw at them. 
 
What makes it more difficult for Jones is that he can’t really attack the edge. He doesn’t have that speed and ability to turn that outside corner and when the Jets try that with him, he gets caught. So the Jets have to keep him pounding the middle even when he’s ramming into a wall of defenders.
 
The offensive line play hasn't been as good as expected

The offensive line play hasn't been as good as expected

During the Titans game the Jets’ offensive line didn’t get enough initial push – something that was the case against the Patriots in Week 2 as well. Sure, Jones has lost a step and yeah maybe he’s not all that happy with his contract but those are not affecting his overall work. On Sunday he recovered a fumble, sold the heck out of a play-fake and did some great pass-blocking.
 
Jones is giving effort, he’s just not getting enough help from his line. While I wasn’t in love with his play in Week 1, I’m more concerned with the line’s play in Weeks 2 & 3.
 
I think Jones can still have a very nice season and as Coach Rex Ryan has publicly stated he isn’t planning on putting Shonn Greene in more, he will continue to have opportunity. He’ll turn it around, and we’ll get to that in a minute. First, we have to look over the other half of the rushing attack.
 
Big numbers have eluded Washington so far this year

Big numbers have eluded Washington so far this year

Leon Washington
Ryan promised to use more of Washington in 2009. After an almost criminal under-utilization of Washington last year, fans and owners alike were ecstatic.
 
Washington is certainly getting more snaps, averaging 13.67 a game. He can run between the tackles, though he runs into the same problem Jones does in terms of no push from the offensive line.
 
What I am not seeing enough of, certainly considering what we expected, is a ton of pass targets.
 
In the first game, Washington had six targets, four of which he hauled in for a total of 24 yards. But the last two games he’s seen just five. He’s caught three of them and totaled in two games what he got in Week 1 – 24 yards.
 
Washington is very dangerous out in space and when catching a screen pass yet he hasn’t been used in that manner very often the last few games. Part of that is that teams now what he can do and guard against it. Yet it also comes down to play-calling.
 
Why aren’t Ryan and Offensive Coordinator utilizing him in the pass game more? Perhaps it has just been that in game planning for the last two match-ups, they were concerned both defenses might be waiting for it. That’s the problem early in the season – not a ton of empirical evidence to look over.
 
It could be Washington isn’t in as often on third downs as Jones is, as Jones has been a very good pass-blocker and may have an easier time doing that due to his heavier weight.
 
While Washington has been getting half the carries in the run game and plenty of touches overall, he may not be getting the right touches currently. Just having him run between the tackles – something I saw a bunch on Sunday against the Titans – seems to be a waste of his abilities.
 
 
Sanchez has won Rookie of the Week 3 Weeks in a Row - but that's not helping the run game

Sanchez has won Rookie of the Week 3 Weeks in a Row - but that's not helping the run game

Mark Sanchez
Wait a minute. Why is the rookie Quarterback in this edition of Trendspotting? We’re talking RUNNING BACKS.
 
Well, next to the oline, nobody on the field will impact the not-so-dynamic-duo as much as the ‘Sanchize’.
 
Sanchez – while now a three time Offensive Rookie of the Week and according to the media the ‘front-runner’ after three whole weeks for Rookie of the Year – isn’t perfect.
 
Listen, he’s cool in the pocket, brave to the point of insanity (ever hear several thousand Jets fans shriek ‘SLIDE MARK SLIDE’? I have.) and has been playing pretty contained football so far during this young season.
 
Yet he has forced throws, been baited into bad decisions and at times looked like what he is – a rookie quarterback. The thought prior to the season is that the team would protect him with a solid run game and that might up Jones and Washington’s numbers as it would increase their carries.
 
Of course, there was some discussion about how a rookie quarterback makes it hard on the run game. Defenses decide most of the time to make the rookie beat them and stack or attack the run. They don’t give up on the pass defense entirely, but a rookie quarterback has to earn their respect.
 
This seemed to get lost in some of the conversation about the Jets rushing attack just before the season.
 
As much as opposing teams respect what Sanchez brings to the table and as much as he has shown flashes of the ability to burn them long, he doesn’t do it consistently enough for them to lay off the run. 
 
OC Schottenheimer keeps things simple for rookie QB Sanchez

OC Schottenheimer keeps things simple for rookie QB Sanchez

Further, Schottenheimer and Ryan are keeping things pretty simple for the rookie. They don’t want to risk overwhelming him with too many schemes and choices. Keeping things a little plain allows the defenses playing against the Jets to focus on fewer potential looks and scenarios.

 
Given the large amount of carries, we know the team is protecting Sanchez with the run. But the vanilla plays they often run (with the exception of the occasional WildCat or razzle dazzle) allow the defense to concentrate on stopping that run.
 
Sanchez needs to get better and make a few more plays downfield if the Jets are to pull the dogs off Jones and Washington at the line. It wouldn’t hurt to see a few more screens to Washington either.
 
What To Do?
 
Both of these players are worth hanging on to. When it comes to Thomas Jones, if you have him and are not hemorrhaging points at the RB2 or Flex spot, hold him.
 
As for Washington, like Jones, he isn’t playing as well as we’d hoped. You probably drafted him much later than Jones, so he may not be hurting you as much. I believe he will continue to get his half of the carries and I believe that as Mark Sanchez continues to improve he will be able to move defenses off the line of scrimmage more.
 
Finally, you have to like the Jets schedule as it stands.
 
There are some tough teams, especially at first glance.
 
Looking over the whole of it though, the Jets have some match-ups which should make their backs salivate. Carolina (29th vs run), Oakland (28th), Tampa Bay (31), Atlanta (24th) and perennial good RB match-up Indianapolis (21st) all should be good days for the Jets tandem. Some of them will improve as the season goes and some of their stats are skewed due to small sample size (three weeks folks). 
 
Still they mark some good potential games for the Jets down the road.
 
Also, some of the tough match-ups aren’t necessarily all they appear. 
 
Sure, Miami (3rd vs the run), Jacksonville (14th) and Cincinnati (11th) seem tough against the run – until you look at their pass defense. Miami (26th), Jacksonville (32nd) and Cincinnati (19th) all struggle against the pass. So that’s what teams do – they pass against these shaky secondaries.
 
It doesn’t mean they aren’t decent run defenses or won’t improve. It does mean that a bad pass defense may be inflating what appears to be a good run defensive ranking. 
 
Many of the best match-ups come late in the Fantasy Season – in fact, Indianapolis is there for many owners Championship Week in Week 16. Carolina, Tampa Bay and Atlanta are all late season match-ups as well.
 
In both cases, these are players worth hanging on to. As I believe they will trend upwards over the next month or so, I would also recommend seeing if you can buy low on them. Point out the offensive line woes and the low total yards past week 1.
 
Looking forward I think this is a rushing attack that will improve as the season gets older.

 

Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

Twitter Roundtable Vol 3: Electric Boogaloo

Aug 7

Posted by admin in Uncategorized | No Comments

300px-King_Arthur_and_the_Knights_of_the_Round_Table[1]BOLD PREDICTIONS

Welcome to another edition of the fabulous Twitter Roundtable, where we gather some of the best, brightest and most verbose Fantasy Experts on Twitter for a discussion of the events that will shape your Fantasy Season. 

Every year there is a guy who surprises us – either for very good or very bad reasons. 
 
Hopping out on that limb for fun – what is the one thing you are predicting (surprise, disappointment, undervalue, overvalue) which will shock and awe the folks back home? 

Matt Schauf – RapidDraft.com: I’m not sure if it’ll shock anyone, but I think Knowshon Moreno will end 2009 as a top 10 PPR back.  
 
The things that tend to limit a rookie runner’s time on the field are opportunity and shortcomings in certain areas. Opportunity is clearly there for him in Denver. Correll Buckhalter is nothing more than a complement, one with big-time knee issues in his past. LaMont Jordan is a goal-line guy as seen late last year in New England. Moreno seems like one of the most well-rounded backs to come out of the draft in a while and will be hard for the Broncos to take off the field. 

Mark Gram – FF101 on Sportsradio1450.com: One player who I feel will disappoint is Marion Barber (Dal). I’m hearing wild projections for MBIII that scare the living daylights out of me. 
 
While he is still a very capable runner, he has competition from 2 players, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice. Both of these players are young, good-looking runners ready to make a name for themselves. 
 
Barber’s #’s dropped in yards, 885 last year compared to 975 in ‘07, ypc, 3.7 last year, 4.8 in ‘07, and in TD’s, 12 in ‘07 and 9 last season. 
 
Not only do I have concerns because of Jones and Choice, I also worry about Barber’s production as the season goes on. His running style is so powerful and bruising, that he wears down as the season progresses. And the numbers bear that out. 
 
I do believe he can still be productive, but temper your enthusiasm and expectations, especially if he’s your #1 guy. 
 
My surprise player heading into the ‘09 season is Michael Bush (Oak). Everyone is talking about Darren McFadden and how this is going to be his year. I’m sorry, I’m not buying it. 
 
I don’t Bush is going to be a 20-25 carry guy, but I think he’ll be productive while sharing carries with McFadden. I’m not concerned with the other Raider RB, Justin Fargas. I don’t see him factoring into the equation very much. 
 
If McFadden gets injured (a distinct possibilty), Bush will be an absolute steal! 

Jeff Terfertiller – Footballguys.com: The guys I am watching for breaking out and breaking down are: 
 
Emerging: 
Leinart (yes I know he has struggled) – I cannot see Warner making it half the season.  New coordinator with Haley in KC.  Situation is ripe for Leinart with Boldin/Fitz. 
 
Laveraneus Coles – I see him having a huge role in Cincy, similar to Houshy’s role of the past.  I could really see Coles with 80+ catches, 900 yds and 8 TDs.   
 
Devin Thomas – He is the guy I am looking to buy in dynasty leagues.  He could emerge as the legit WR2 in Wash.  Much depends on Campbell, though. 
 
Felix Jones – Had a couple of huge games before being lost to injury. 
 
Michael Bush – Monster game against Tampa in week 17 gave indication he could be a nice sleeper 
 
Donnie Avery – He is the only WR on a team that will have to pass a ton.   
 
Celek – His huge game in the NFCC game makes me think he is destined for better days in Philly 
 
 
Declining: 
Seattle Passing game – Hasselbeck is getting older and injury-prone.  The OL is not strong.  Houshy and his low YPR should disappoint.  No running game.  The offense is a mess. 
 
Buff Passing game – Edwards needs a lot more pass attempts than he has gotten in order to satisfy Owens and Evans.  I think Owens still gets his, and Evans disappoints AGAIN.  Edwards has struggled down the stretch in the two seasons he has been in the league.  His slumps mirror Evans’.  

Matt Schauf – RapidDraft.com: Barber was easily on pace for his first 1,000-yard season before his Thanksgiving Day toe injury that basically ended his season (13 carries over the final four weeks). The per-carry average is a legit concern, I think, although the Dallas line really wasn’t very good last season. Felix Jones got his big average because he’s a dynamic outside runner who will break some long ones. Tashard Choice also put up bigger rushing averages, though, in that late-season span after Barber’s injury. If you look closely, though, he also produced at least one run of 20 or more yards in all but one of the five games in which he got double-digit carries. Take away his longest carry in each of those contests, and his per-carry average dips below 4 yards in every game but the Giants affair. 
 
What does that mean? Likely that both young backs are bigger threats to break off a long one than Barber. That shouldn’t really surprise anyone. He’s at his best in short-yardage situations because of the whole “runs angry” thing. That said, Barber has caught 44 and 52 passes in the past two seasons and tied for seventh in the league in 2007 with eight runs of at least 20 yards — that despite getting just 204 attempts. 
 
I think that if Dallas spells Barber as it should with the two younger guys, Barber could pretty easily match his 2007 numbers — perhaps even with a few more touchdowns now that Owens is gone. 

Andrew Garda – Thundering Blurb:

Earlier Mark said, ‘One player who I feel will disappoint is Marion Barber (Dal). I’m hearing wild projections for MBIII that scare the living daylights out of me.’ 

I don’t know if you caught my tweet about it a while back but Barber went in an auction/dynasty/contract league I’m in as the most expensive player period. Limit is 500, he went for 140 – more than 1/5 of the cap. It was crazy. 

Josh Torrey – FantasyDC.com: This may come off as more than a rant then predictions…. 
 
Knowshon Moreno is a Top 10 RB in PPR Leagues (I think this was already predicted by someone else) 
Larry Fitzgerald doesn’t make the Top 5 WRs in any format 
Tom Brady is THE Fantasy QB of the year 
The Jets DST achieves Top 5 status 
Brent Celek becomes a Top 10 TE for this year only 
Kurt Warner misses +8 Games this season 
The Ravens DST doesn’t crack the Top 7 
 
Okay. I’m done. I need to work on my DE IDP Rankings…. 

Matt Schauf – RapidDraft.com: I’ll buy the Jets’ defense from Week 5 on, but those first four games without Calvin Pace are going to be tough. 

Jeff Terfertiller – Footballguys.com: Josh, I can’t believe you and I are so much on the same page.  The only one I would question is Moreno, just because the Bronco defense.  I would add that I see Moss as WR1 to match Brady.  

Matt Schauf – RapidDraft.com: I think, barring injury, Moreno should be good for at least 1056 yards rushing this season. Let’s say he only manages to get 220 carries this year (I think he’ll get more like 250) behind maybe the league’s best offensive line. Denver averaged 4.8 yards per carry as a team last year, which is where I get the 1056 figure from. That average included a broad group of backs who might all have been less talented than Moreno. Among the group, Peyton Hillis and Selvin Young each went for 5 yards a rush, and Tatum Bell averaged 5.7. Give Moreno 5 yards per carry (which he could surpass), and he’s an 1100-yard back at just 220 carries. Just 10 backs reached 1100 last year. 
 
The two big variables are receptions and touchdowns. I have a hard time imagining Moreno catching fewer than 40 passes this year. Kevin Faulk grabbed 58 in a similarly crowded backfield as the Pats’ No. 3 receiver behind Moss and Welker last year under McDaniels — 47 the year before that. If Moreno gets at least 40 catches, it only takes 7.5 yards per to get him to 1400 total yards. 
 
As for touchdowns, Ryan Grant was the only guy to run for 1100 last year and not score at least eight times on the ground. Add another one or two receiving scores at least at that kind of work level 
 
Barring injury, I think Moreno will (conservatively) be good for about 1400 total yards, 40 receptions and 9 total touchdowns. 

By the way, I do agree on Moss as this year’s No. 1 receiver. 

Jim Day – FantasyFootballWhiz.com: My bold prediction is that John Carlson will be a top 5 TE by year’s end. Carlson had a great rookie year with 55 receptions for 627 yards and 5 TDs. Most of this was done with Seneca Wallace at QB. When Hasselbeck did start, Carlson had 23 catches in 5 starts. Look for them to build on this bond in 2009. The running game is not very solid and outside of new arrival TJ Houshmandzadeh, there are not a lot of receiving options, at least none that can stay on the field for any length of time. Look for Carlson to break out and rival the top TE’s in the game. 
 
Other predictions:  
 
LT once again moves into the top 5 at RB 
Matt Cassel is a big bust in KC 
Roy Williams will not be worth his current ADP. He is not a #1 WR anymore. 
Tashard Choice will be the Cowboys starting RB.

 
Steve Wyremski – retiredrookie.com:

Bold predictions: 
 
1) Larry Johnson doesn’t last until midway through the 2009 season as the Chiefs starting RB.  
2) Thomas Jones doesn’t end the season as the Jets starting RB. 
3) Pierre Garcon has over 500 yards receiving and there’s talk at the end of the year if he’ll pass Gonzo for the #2 spot. 
4) Chris Henry finishes with the best receiving stats on the Bengals. 
5) Miles Austin has better receiving stats than Roy Williams to finish the year. 
6) Desean Wynn will be the starting RB in GB by the end of 2009 and Grant will be useless for FF playoffs.  I’ve never been a fan of grant and if Wynn didn’t have that injury two years ago he’d probably now be the starting RB in GB. 
7) Without Tony G, Bowe gets doubled and struggles to be top 15 WR in 2009. 

Matt Schauf – RapidDraft.com: DeShawn Wynn never struck me as a feature back, even when he was the primary runner (because of injuries to others) in Green Bay. I think he’ll get more work than he did early last year, but I don’t see him as more than a complementary back. 

Parag Gheewala – Mockumentary:

Not sure if these are bold… 
1.  Marques Colston will be a top 5 WR. 
2.  Domenik Hixon will be the best fantasy WR on the NYG and a WR2. 
3.  Michael Turner is not in the top 10 WR. 
4.  Julius Jones – great value at RB. 
5.  Kellen Winslow returns to prominence (top 5 TE). 
 

Jared Ferree – What’s Your Fantasy Podcast: I love all the LOVE for Knowshon Moreno.  Smart people who project rather than just reflect will see that Moreno could easily be a top 10 fantasy RB in PPR leagues.  Is he a guarantee, no, but I will take my chances on a very talented RB who is playing for a great offensive line in Denver, who is playing for a QB who checked down an awful lot to a less talented RB named Matt Forte last season.   
 
MJD will not finish in the top 10 fantasy RB unless you get points for being a huge disappointment.   
 
“Kurt Warner misses +8 Games this season” – Not sure where that is coming from at all.  Is he one of the older starting QB’s yeah, so are you predicting the same for Kerry Collins?  Either way, to counter this bold prediction, I will throw out this one. 
 
Kurt Warner will finish in the top 5 among fantasy QB! 
 
Larry Fitzgerald finishes no worse than 3rd among fantasy WRs in ANY format! 
 
Sorry to take shots at Josh, but maybe you can explain to me why you think Warner misses more than 8 games, and why Fitzgerald doesn’t crack the top 5??  I feel those are more, “Throw them out there, and if they hit I look like I knew something no one else knew” predictions rather than “Bold” Predictions.  Just my opinion though! 

Josh Torrey – FantasyDC.com: Umm. Warner has only started 16 full games in a season 3 Times. And NONE of them were back to back. Last year? Perfect 16 games. I’m not even including his age, he has always been susceptible to the injury bug. Maybe you’re not superstitious but you have the Madden Curse, the Super Bowl Loser curse, a change in OC, change in DC, Warner’s injury history and finally his age. Thanks but no thanks. I’ll pass on both Warner & Fitzgerald at their current ADP.  

Jim Day – FantasyFootballWhiz.com: 
You forgot the “SO THERE” at the end of it…. 

And so ends another edition of the TWITTER ROUNDTABLE! Thanks again for all who took part and we’ll be back with more very, very soon! 

Thanks to the cast from this go-round: 

Jeff Tefertiller (@Jeff Tefertiller) is a Footballguys.com staffer and USA Today BlogSquad member.  Most of all, he’s a football fan and spends a lot of time researching future articles when not spending time with the wife and two little ones.   

Matt Schauf  (@mschauf63) You can now find his work as the lead football writer for PFS and SportsBuff.com or at RapidDraft.com, where he also provides the strategy for the “Hollywood” character in the industry’s first single-player fantasy football game. His IDP writing can also be found at SportingNews.com and in preview magazines for Sporting News, Rotoworld and Football Diehards.

Joshua Torrey (@jmtorrey) is a contributor to FantasyDC.com & is a fan of not just football but football strategy. Joshua enjoys breaking down game tape and team schemes to predict long term fantasy success.

Andrew Garda (@ThunderingBlurb) writes for a myriad of sites including FantasyPros911.com, BleacherReport.com and his own site, ThunderingBlurb.com. He also hosts his own weekly show The Thundering Blurb Football Show every Wednesday (10pm EST) on BlogTalkRadio.com.

Mark Gram (@FF101) Along with Adam Stark and Eric Pedigo, Mark begins the 5th season of Fantasy Football 101 with a fantasy draft special on Aug 13th on www.sportsradio1450.com WFMB am. 

Steve Wyremski’s (@retiredrookie) primary focus is to reach out to NFL and NCAA players for interviews in an effort to bring the players closer to fans.  Dynasty leagues are a huge focus of his, but general football strategy is his love.

Parag Gheewala (@vote4parag) is an average guy with a day job who loves fantasy football and is also the mastermind behind Mockumentary, which started as his Twitter commentary on the first Twitter Fantasy Football Mock Draft.

Jim Day (@Fantasytaz)  has been writing for FF sites since 2000 when he started with Xpertsports.com. Jim started Fantasy Football Whiz in 2007 just as a place to have some fun and conversation with fellow league mates and any other fantasy fanatic that wanted to talk FF.

Jared Ferree (@WYFShow ) hosts the “What’s Your Fantasy” radio show/podcast on Blogtalkradio’s Fantasy Sports Channel with Raymond Summerlin.  He is also a frequent contributor to www.lindyssports.com with both fantasy player rankings and general fantasy football articles. 

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,