Posts Tagged Kurt Warner

Up For Grabs: How Warner’s Retirement Opens The Door For The 49ers

It’s over. Just give San Francisco the 2010 NFC West Division title now and be done with it.

OK, that’s a bit of hyperbole. Nothing is ever set in stone. You just have to like the 49ers’ chances, though, in a division where the most consistent and dynamic offense just lost it’s biggest weapon.

Future HOF QB Warner bows out - what does that mean for the Cards?

Future HOF QB Warner bows out - what does that mean for the Cards?

With the announcement today that Arizona Cardinal quarterback Kurt Warner is leaving the game, the 49ers find themselves with an opportunity to not only compete—something they were already doing this past season—but wrest the Division title from the Cardinals for the first time in two years.

It won’t be easy. The Cardinals still have one of the best group of wide receivers in the game today. Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Breaston—and if he stays—Anquan Boldin are all top notch players. If Boldin leaves, Early Doucet has proven he can step in as a number three, while Breaston steps up into the number two role.

Problem is, they won’t have Kurt Warner throwing to them.

Say what you will about judging too early, but Matt Leinart has yet to show that he will step seamlessly into Warner’s shoes. While he looked improved when given spot duty during the playoffs, Leinart lacks consistency and has struggled more than he has excelled.

It’s safe to say that for an offense predicated on massive pass yardage, this could prove to be a huge step backwards. 

While Chris Wells and Tim Hightower have formed a pretty good running back tandem, they will now face stiffer run defenses until Leinart can prove he’s the real deal. The offensive line, which has been shaky and streaky, will be tested with blitzes and various pressure schemes to press Leinart into bad decisions.

The Cardinals won’t implode, not by any means. What they may have to do is seriously alter their offensive game plan to suit the remaining talent, which can take time. Fitzgerald and company may be able to make Leinart look better quicker, but ultimately defenses will test the young quarterback.

From what we’ve seen so far, he has a long way to go still.

While the 49ers struggled throughout the season, they made some great strides forward. Another year with the same coaching staff, with the same vision, should allow them to continue to build towards something very good.

There are certainly areas of need. The secondary needs help, the offensive line has pretty significant problems and they could use more defensive line and linebacker depth to help create pressure on opposing offenses (such as the Cardinals).

However, if 49ers quarterback Alex Smith can play a little more consistently and continue to make strides forward, if the team can improve that offensive line via Free Agency and April’s NFL Draft, if Frank Gore can stay healthy while Glen Coffee takes a step forward in his secodn year—well the 49ers have an opportunity to strike and wrest the Division away from Arizona.

It’s a lot of ‘if’s’ but the 49ers were in the hunt for much of the season this year despite some really shaky moments. With a second off-season together, as well as additions they can make this Spring, they will continue to take a step forward.

The running game—anchored by Gore and assisted by Coffee—will still be a key feature and as the offensive line improves, they will only be more effective.

While there are still questions about Smith as a viable starter long-term, the weapons he has in tight end Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree (and to a lesser extent, Josh Morgan) are potent. Smith needs to protect the ball better, but his arm strength coupled with his receivers could allow him to pull defenses away from the offensive line and give the run game more room.

There is work to be done, but the 49ers offense is on the upswing.

Looking at the rest of the Divison doesn’t really create worries. Aside from anfc-west[1] Cardinals team which will still be a tough foe—even without Warner—there are two teams in far worse shape than San Francisco.

The St. Louis Rams are in complete rebulding mode and barring a miracle, will not be a factor for several years. Both sides of the ball—from quarterback to secondary to offensive and defensive linemen—are a shattered mess in need of a complete tear-down and rebuild.

The Seattle Seahawks have more tools to work with but are still in a transitional period. Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck has problems staying healthy and is no longer the top-shelf quarterback he once was. There is little to speak about in the run game, the wide receivers—even 2009’s Big Signing TJ Houshmandzedah—are decidedly average even when Hasselbeck isn’t struggling or hurt. The defense is slipping. And they have a new coach—former USC Head Coach Pete Carroll—who has to come in and revamp much of the team.

Neither of these teams are serious contenders for the NFC West Title.

It will come down to the Cardinals and the 49ers. Neither team is perfect, but while the 49ers are adding pieces, the Cardinals are losing one—a big one. You don’t lose a potential Hall of Fame quarterback and just move on. (Well, you rarely do. Usually you need Steve Young.)

It’s a long off-season and both teams will make many roster moves between now and opening day. Many things will change, perhaps radically.

Regardless of those moves, the balance of power in the NFC West has shifted. It may be slight. It may even still be weighed in the Cardinals’ favor.

It moved, though and that slight shift could be all the 49ers need to win the Division Title since 2002.

 

Find more 49ers articles by Andrew at BleacherReport.com.

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Fantasy Rankings: QB

So if you’ve been reading the site, you know I’ve been doing weekly rankings for fantasy football with some of the other hosts on the Fantasy Sports Channel over at TheFantasySportsChannel.com.

This week I thought I would give a little insight into some of my rankings here at the Blurb site. I like the sortable, easy ranking system the FSC uses but only one person can make a note per player which means we can overwrite each other.

So here are my thoughts on the QB rankings I did. Again, check them out here if you haven’t already.

Honestly, there isn’t a ton to debate over the quarterbacks. Drew Brees is still your top guy. Warner slipped to eight but that’s more a case of me being high on the guys who precede him than concern for Warner. He’ll still have an excellent game.

Brady has felt the heat this season

Brady has felt the heat this season

I think Tom Brady will have a very good day – it’s possible Atlanta tries to press him the way the Jets did this past Sunday but I’m not sure they have what it takes. I think he’s going to come out determined to re-establish the passing attack and have a very good day in what may amount to a shootout.

Carson Palmer slips to 14 and while I think he may have a good yardage day and maybe even some touchdowns, I am concerned he could continue to turn the ball over.

Jason Campbell and Joe Flacco both face lackluster defenses but their fantasy value is harmed by what should be a lot of work on the ground. They may have good days but I wouldn’t want to start them over guys who are better bets to throw a lot more.

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Twitter Roundtable Vol. 4 The QBs Strike Back

Welcome to another edition of the Twitter Roundtable. As always, our group of Fantasy Experts discuss a topic of fantasy relevance to your league and season.
 
Today, we talk about Quarterbacks.
 
While many an owner is thinking about grabbing QB early, still others wait for their signal-caller. Which guy currently projected outside these twelve Quarterbacks has the best shot at making the top 8? Why?

Brady, Tom – NE
Brees, Drew – NO
Manning, Peyton – IND

McNabb, Donovan – PHI
Warner, Kurt – ARI
Rivers, Philip – SD
Rodgers, Aaron – GB
Palmer, Carson – CIN
Schaub, Matt – HOU
Romo, Tony – DAL
Cutler, Jay – CHI
Garrard, David – JAX
Orton, Kyle – DEN
 
 
Jared Feree – What’s Your Fantasy Podcast
Based on THAT list, two guys step out to me. 

1) Matt Hasselbeck – Hasselbeck, the last time he was healthy, finished top ten and he is gaining a great receiver in Houshmandzadeh.  He does still play in one of the weaker conferences in the NFC West.  I also think Carlson is a nice weapon and Deion Branch, when healthy, is a nice target as well.  I wouldn’t want to place any bets on Hassebeck finishing top 10, but wouldn’t be surprised if he wound up there. 

2) Matt Ryan – I like him to be close to top 10 and would prefer him over a guy like Garrard.  Roddy White is solid, Turner is solid, and the addition of Tony Gonzalez could add a few redzone passing TD’s.  While his overall numbers weren’t that impressive last season, he did finish top 15 as a rookie.

HONORABLE MENTION:
Brett Favre for obvious reasons, but I think he will move very close to the top 12 once he is in camp. 

 

 
Matt Schauf – RapidDraft.com
From what I’ve seen, Matt Ryan is far more often considered among the top 12 than Orton or Garrard. I agree that Hasselbeck doesn’t have a long trip to get back into the top 12, although I also don’t trust him to make it through a full schedule. I really like Trent Edwards, though his success (or failure) will depend on how quickly a whole new line can jell. I’m not betting on him as a starter right away, but I’ll absolutely take a shot on him as a backup/spot starter with upside. Matt Cassel got sacked more than any other passer in the league last year and he still managed to have a pretty nice season.

Terrell Owens was awesome in his first seasons with Philly and Dallas (despite some new kid taking over at QB during that year with the Cowboys), and he seems to be saying and doing all the right things again in Buffalo.

Another really late sleeper is Jason Campbell, who has a more experienced line and is, by all accounts, determined to finally put it all together this year. He’s done a pretty good job avoiding interceptions as a starter overall, so the big question will be whether he has enough at receiver.

 
Ginny Loveless – Footballdiehards.com
With Falcon’s bruuuuutal schedule, there’s no way I’d put Matt Ryan on the list.

HHmmmm…. Matt Hasselbeck and Trent Edwards

MH: In the past, Hasselbeck has been a proven fantasy starter. So, knowing he can be in that role eases the assumption that he can do it again.  Last year was extremely subpar for him due not only to the injuries to his receivers, but his own injury which caused him to miss half the season. Hasselbeck has said himself that he is now completely recovered from his back woes and even Coach More is happy with his progress, so that’s always good to hear. 

Doing some quick math here, had he played all 16 games –all things being equal – he would have ended the season with about 2850 yards and 11 touchdowns.   While that’s pretty middle-of-the-pack stats, he should thrive this year as he gets to air it out to TJ Houshmandzadeh and John Carlson. Not to mention that if Nate Burleson and Deion Branch can stay healthy, things will be even easier for the 10-year vet.

TE: From what I’ve seen and read, Trent Edwards is a great decision maker who understands the offense and we should see an overall improvement of him at this position as he enters his third year.  But, it’s the addition of Terrell Owens to his receiving crew that makes me include him here. Lee Evans is great to have on the other side of the field, too. If Marshawn Lynch and the Bills’ running game keep steady, that should make things easier for him as well.

Between Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson…..whoever wins that job I would add to the list… There’s talent in Cleveland with Braylon Edwards and Brian Robiskie.  Quinn is one more year into being more mature and I think he can really start something good this year with Edwards. Braylon’s flub last year was a fluke and he will rebound. :::crossfingers:::

 
Parag Gheewala – Mockumentary
I like the Matt Hasslebeck pick, but I’ll stick my neck out and go with Ben Roethlisberger.  I have a feeling that Ben will have solid but unspectacular season.  His owners will be constantly looking for an upgrade because he’ll never quite be a difference maker each week.  Not many will try to trade for him because he won’t seem like an upgrade.  But at the end of the season, everyone will be shocked to see that Ben’s made it into the top 8 (barely).  Some of the better QBs will get hurt (Kurt Warner, I’m looking at you) and some will sit because their teams have clinched the playoffs.  The result is that one of the best NFL QBs will put together a top 8 fantasy football season. Since his ADP is outside of the top 12, he sounds like a nice backup QB to grab.
 
Matt Schauf – RapidDraft.com
I’m definitely not a Braylon Edwards believer. I think that the numbers he has put up with various quarterbacks over four seasons indicate that he’s much closer to a 70-catch, 7-touchdown type of player at best than the blowed-up 2007 version. If he were a true, sure-fire No. 1 wideout, I have to think he either would have snapped out of the funk at some point last season or found the Giants willing to give up Steve Smith to bring him aboard this winter.
 
Roethlisberger is another player that I never end up drafting, because he has clearly shown that he can’t be counted on for big numbers. I’d like to think that the apparent emergence of Santonio Holmes will set Ben up to finally reach 20 TD passes for the second time in his career this year, but there was no good reason for him not to do so last year.

The potential for distraction in this new lawsuit that might involve sexual assault doesn’t help things either.

 
Josh Torrey – FantasyDC.com
I don’t believe Holmes “playoff” emergence will amount to much this season. He is a good player, but I don’t think he’ll be consistent enough to counter Ben’s lack of consistency.

That said, Trent Edwards & Matt Hasselback are my two nominations. I’ve written an article on Edwards (that received due heat) trying to show that big numbers from him are not that far fetched. The guy didn’t play in two games last year as was crazy efficient in his 2nd Year.  I obviously expect that efficiency to go down as he tosses the ball deep more often but he just got one of the best redzone WRs in the NFL. His TDs should be on the rise.

 
Ginny Loveless – Footballdiehards.com
 
Some thoughts on Parag’s Big Ben take:
 
Parag: I’ll stick my neck out and go with Ben Roethlisberger.
Me: Big Ben has never been a relevant/dependable fantasy option.
Parag: His owners will be constantly looking for an upgrade.

Me:  Agreed.

 
Parag: He’ll never quite be a difference maker each week.

Me:Agreed.

Parag: Not many will try to trade for him because he won’t seem like an upgrade.

Me: Agreed.

Parag: But at the end of the season, everyone will be shocked to see that Ben’s made it into the top 8. Some of the better QBs will get hurt and some will sit because their teams have clinched the playoffs.

 
Me: If he gets into the top 8 based on injuries and starters sitting then he has not achieved anything.  It will still be the same subpar fantasy performance we expect from Big Ben, but he is moving up in the ranks out of default.  I’ll pass.

 
Matt Schauf – RapidDrafts.com
From the looks of things, Holmes’ Super Bowl performance has led to him rededicating this off-season. He’s added some bulk and just generally seems more focused on proving himself every time I see him quoted. I’m not penciling him in as a fantasy No. 1, but I do think it’s possible he finally reaches that level.
 
Andrew Garda – ThunderingBlurb.com
Actually Big Ben is reliable from the standpoint of, he doesn’t lose you matchups – though he won’t win you championships.

But I’d be shocked if he hit the top 10.

Echoing thoughts here: I think Hasselbeck and Edwards have shots, though Hass has to stay healthy (and his Oline needs to hang on one more year) and Edwards has to overcome three new starters on the line.

I’m going to throw a different wrinkle in there – Chad Pennington.

Granted this will be a VERY tough climb – the schedule he has is abusive and just looking at the AFC East alone shows teams that managed to get better than they were last year. And last year they didn’t exactly suck.

Still, Pennington had a great season in 2008 and not much changed offensively for the Phins this off-season. Ginn has a year more experience, the team picked up some rookie help, Ronnie Brown looks healthy and ready to go and Penny is coming off a season where he finished top 10 in many leagues.

The Wildcat didn’t hurt Pennington and won’t this year – and Pat White hasn’t done a thing to impact the QB position yet (though White is a guy who always looks worse in practice than in games).

Aside from the tough schedule Pennington needs to: stay healthy (rare), stay accurate (usually a strength) and stay upright (Dolphins were ranked 23rd in sacks allowing only 26). The Dolphins were a top 10 passing offense in 2008 (according to NFL.com) – if that holds it gives Pennington (the main man there) a strong chance to do the same in 2009.

If you grab him as part of a QBBC, you limit risk and still have the upside for a nice season.

 
Jim Day – FantasyFootballWhiz.com
I am going to go outside the box here and say Shaun Hill. Yes I said Shaun Hill, STOP LAUGHING.

I know that Alex Smith was getting talked up out of OTA’s but he will NOT beat out Hill to start. Okay that established, let’s take a closer look at Hill.

In the last 8 games of 2008 (his starts) he finished 8th in QB scoring, beating out Warner, Big Ben, McNabb, Ryan, and most definitely Brett Favre. He has a completion percentage of 64% in his 10 career starts. He averages 250 yds per start and has 18 Tds versus only 9 interceptions over that same period.

Now he has a 2nd year receiver in Josh Morgan who many feel is in a good position to break out. Morgan has good size and speed and should improve on his 2008 numbers.

He also has a great veteran in Isaac Bruce who had 61 receptions for 835 yards and 7 TDs in 2008. Many feel he won’t put up those numbers in 2009, but it is hard to count him out.

Now add in a receiver many felt was the best receiver, if not the best impact player, in this year’s draft, Michael Crabtree. Crabtree had over 3000 yards and 41 TDs in just two years in a high powered Texas Tech offense. He has good size, great hands and very good speed.  He is not your ordinary rookie and should give Hill a very nice red zone option.

Look for Hill to top 3000 yards and be very close to 25 TDs.

 
Ginny Loveless – FootballDiehards.com
RE: Jim – I am going to go outside the box here and say Shaun Hill. Yes I said Shaun Hill, STOP LAUGHING.

That’s it.  I want out of these Roundtable shenanigans.

 
Josh Torrey – FantasyDC.com

Matt Schauf said: From the looks of things, Holmes’ Super Bowl performance has led to him rededicating this off-season. He’s added some bulk and just generally seems more focused on proving himself every time I see him quoted. I’m not penciling him in as a fantasy No. 1, but I do think it’s possible he finally reaches that level.

Me: I know this is a QB thread but I have to respond to this, lol.

Holmes spent a lot of time this last off-season adding strength too. He went through almost all practices in Training Camp with weighted gloves. I really felt it made a difference in terms of him snatching balls from the air. But my point was this, I’m not slighting Holmes. I’m just saying he wouldn’t be good enough to change how Ben plays football. To make Ben consistent, you’re going to need to sit him in the pocket & ask him to not take wild chances….that will lead to losing games. Ben will be erratic, he’ll have horrific fantasy games and you’ll regret drafting him when you’re playing against Brees, Brady or Manning.

All this btw? I’m a huge Steelers fan and own Big Ben as my Dynasty QB in a 16 Team League. So this is no anti-Ben bias.

 
Steve Wyremski – retiredrookie.com 
Sign me up for Matt Ryan and Trent Edwards to replace Orton.

Matt Ryan
I realize that he’s got a nasty schedule (or so it seems), but it’s very tough to give that a ton of weight at this point given the parity in the NFL and the fluctuation of top teams year after year.  Tony Gonzalez should help out big time freeing up the receivers and with a year under his belt he should be golden.  Come on…!  I’m a BC fan!

Trent Edwards
This is pretty simple for me taking a look at a simple fact.  Last year’s squad was Lee Evans, Josh Reed and Robert Royal.  Now, we’re looking at TO, Lee Evans and Shawn Nelson.  Talk about night and day.  Edwards is primed for a breakout season and the team should largely benefit from the presence of TO during his honeymoon season.  Besides, TO looks like his finally matured from watching his show on VH1.  Really.   

 
And that’s it for today’s discussion – thanks to everyone for taking part and for reading.
 
To find out more about the folks involved, please take a moment to read below:

 

Matt Schauf  (@mschauf63) You can now find his work as the lead football writer for PFS and SportsBuff.com or at RapidDraft.com, where he also provides the strategy for the “Hollywood” character in the industry’s first single-player fantasy football game. His IDP writing can also be found at SportingNews.com and in preview magazines for Sporting News, Rotoworld and Football Diehards.

 

Joshua Torrey (@jmtorrey) is a contributor to FantasyDC.com & is a fan of not just football but football strategy. Joshua enjoys breaking down game tape and team schemes to predict long term fantasy success.

 

Andrew Garda (@ThunderingBlurb) writes for a myriad of sites including FantasyPros911.com, BleacherReport.com and his own site, ThunderingBlurb.com. He also hosts his own weekly show The Thundering Blurb Football Show every Wednesday (10pm EST) on BlogTalkRadio.com.

 

Steve Wyremski’s (@retiredrookie) primary focus is to reach out to NFL and NCAA players for interviews in an effort to bring the players closer to fans.  Dynasty leagues are a huge focus of his, but general football strategy is his love.

 

Parag Gheewala (@vote4parag) is an average guy with a day job who loves fantasy football and is also the mastermind behind Mockumentary, which started as his Twitter commentary on the first Twitter Fantasy Football Mock Draft.

 

Jim Day (@Fantasytaz)  has been writing for FF sites since 2000 when he started with Xpertsports.com. Jim started Fantasy Football Whiz in 2007 just as a place to have some fun and conversation with fellow league mates and any other fantasy fanatic that wanted to talk FF.

 

Jared Ferree (@WYFShow ) hosts the “What’s Your Fantasy” radio show/podcast on Blogtalkradio’s Fantasy Sports Channel with Raymond Summerlin.  He is also a frequent contributor to www.lindyssports.com with both fantasy player rankings and general fantasy football articles. 

 

Ginny Loveless (@GBGinny) is a staff writer at Football Diehards and is part of the weekly fantasy football recap crew. This beer-drinking, brat-eating, cheesehead will give you her best tip at being successful in fantasy football: numbers don’t lie. Stick with the facts and you’ll do alright. However . . . a little luck never hurts.

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Twitter Roundtable Vol 3: Electric Boogaloo

300px-King_Arthur_and_the_Knights_of_the_Round_Table[1]BOLD PREDICTIONS

Welcome to another edition of the fabulous Twitter Roundtable, where we gather some of the best, brightest and most verbose Fantasy Experts on Twitter for a discussion of the events that will shape your Fantasy Season. 

Every year there is a guy who surprises us – either for very good or very bad reasons. 
 
Hopping out on that limb for fun – what is the one thing you are predicting (surprise, disappointment, undervalue, overvalue) which will shock and awe the folks back home?
 

Matt Schauf – RapidDraft.com: I’m not sure if it’ll shock anyone, but I think Knowshon Moreno will end 2009 as a top 10 PPR back.  
 
The things that tend to limit a rookie runner’s time on the field are opportunity and shortcomings in certain areas. Opportunity is clearly there for him in Denver. Correll Buckhalter is nothing more than a complement, one with big-time knee issues in his past. LaMont Jordan is a goal-line guy as seen late last year in New England. Moreno seems like one of the most well-rounded backs to come out of the draft in a while and will be hard for the Broncos to take off the field.
 

Mark Gram – FF101 on Sportsradio1450.com: One player who I feel will disappoint is Marion Barber (Dal). I’m hearing wild projections for MBIII that scare the living daylights out of me. 
 
While he is still a very capable runner, he has competition from 2 players, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice. Both of these players are young, good-looking runners ready to make a name for themselves. 
 
Barber’s #’s dropped in yards, 885 last year compared to 975 in ‘07, ypc, 3.7 last year, 4.8 in ‘07, and in TD’s, 12 in ‘07 and 9 last season. 
 
Not only do I have concerns because of Jones and Choice, I also worry about Barber’s production as the season goes on. His running style is so powerful and bruising, that he wears down as the season progresses. And the numbers bear that out. 
 
I do believe he can still be productive, but temper your enthusiasm and expectations, especially if he’s your #1 guy. 
 
My surprise player heading into the ‘09 season is Michael Bush (Oak). Everyone is talking about Darren McFadden and how this is going to be his year. I’m sorry, I’m not buying it. 
 
I don’t Bush is going to be a 20-25 carry guy, but I think he’ll be productive while sharing carries with McFadden. I’m not concerned with the other Raider RB, Justin Fargas. I don’t see him factoring into the equation very much. 
 
If McFadden gets injured (a distinct possibilty), Bush will be an absolute steal!
 

Jeff Terfertiller – Footballguys.com: The guys I am watching for breaking out and breaking down are: 
 
Emerging: 
Leinart (yes I know he has struggled) – I cannot see Warner making it half the season.  New coordinator with Haley in KC.  Situation is ripe for Leinart with Boldin/Fitz. 
 
Laveraneus Coles – I see him having a huge role in Cincy, similar to Houshy’s role of the past.  I could really see Coles with 80+ catches, 900 yds and 8 TDs.   
 
Devin Thomas – He is the guy I am looking to buy in dynasty leagues.  He could emerge as the legit WR2 in Wash.  Much depends on Campbell, though. 
 
Felix Jones – Had a couple of huge games before being lost to injury. 
 
Michael Bush – Monster game against Tampa in week 17 gave indication he could be a nice sleeper 
 
Donnie Avery – He is the only WR on a team that will have to pass a ton.   
 
Celek – His huge game in the NFCC game makes me think he is destined for better days in Philly 
 
 
Declining: 
Seattle Passing game – Hasselbeck is getting older and injury-prone.  The OL is not strong.  Houshy and his low YPR should disappoint.  No running game.  The offense is a mess. 
 
Buff Passing game – Edwards needs a lot more pass attempts than he has gotten in order to satisfy Owens and Evans.  I think Owens still gets his, and Evans disappoints AGAIN.  Edwards has struggled down the stretch in the two seasons he has been in the league.  His slumps mirror Evans’. 
 

Matt Schauf – RapidDraft.com: Barber was easily on pace for his first 1,000-yard season before his Thanksgiving Day toe injury that basically ended his season (13 carries over the final four weeks). The per-carry average is a legit concern, I think, although the Dallas line really wasn’t very good last season. Felix Jones got his big average because he’s a dynamic outside runner who will break some long ones. Tashard Choice also put up bigger rushing averages, though, in that late-season span after Barber’s injury. If you look closely, though, he also produced at least one run of 20 or more yards in all but one of the five games in which he got double-digit carries. Take away his longest carry in each of those contests, and his per-carry average dips below 4 yards in every game but the Giants affair. 
 
What does that mean? Likely that both young backs are bigger threats to break off a long one than Barber. That shouldn’t really surprise anyone. He’s at his best in short-yardage situations because of the whole “runs angry” thing. That said, Barber has caught 44 and 52 passes in the past two seasons and tied for seventh in the league in 2007 with eight runs of at least 20 yards — that despite getting just 204 attempts. 
 
I think that if Dallas spells Barber as it should with the two younger guys, Barber could pretty easily match his 2007 numbers — perhaps even with a few more touchdowns now that Owens is gone.
 

Andrew Garda – Thundering Blurb:

Earlier Mark said, ‘One player who I feel will disappoint is Marion Barber (Dal). I’m hearing wild projections for MBIII that scare the living daylights out of me.’ 

I don’t know if you caught my tweet about it a while back but Barber went in an auction/dynasty/contract league I’m in as the most expensive player period. Limit is 500, he went for 140 – more than 1/5 of the cap. It was crazy. 

Josh Torrey – FantasyDC.com: This may come off as more than a rant then predictions…. 
 
Knowshon Moreno is a Top 10 RB in PPR Leagues (I think this was already predicted by someone else) 
Larry Fitzgerald doesn’t make the Top 5 WRs in any format 
Tom Brady is THE Fantasy QB of the year 
The Jets DST achieves Top 5 status 
Brent Celek becomes a Top 10 TE for this year only 
Kurt Warner misses +8 Games this season 
The Ravens DST doesn’t crack the Top 7 
 
Okay. I’m done. I need to work on my DE IDP Rankings….
 

Matt Schauf – RapidDraft.com: I’ll buy the Jets’ defense from Week 5 on, but those first four games without Calvin Pace are going to be tough. 

Jeff Terfertiller – Footballguys.com: Josh, I can’t believe you and I are so much on the same page.  The only one I would question is Moreno, just because the Bronco defense.  I would add that I see Moss as WR1 to match Brady.  

Matt Schauf – RapidDraft.com: I think, barring injury, Moreno should be good for at least 1056 yards rushing this season. Let’s say he only manages to get 220 carries this year (I think he’ll get more like 250) behind maybe the league’s best offensive line. Denver averaged 4.8 yards per carry as a team last year, which is where I get the 1056 figure from. That average included a broad group of backs who might all have been less talented than Moreno. Among the group, Peyton Hillis and Selvin Young each went for 5 yards a rush, and Tatum Bell averaged 5.7. Give Moreno 5 yards per carry (which he could surpass), and he’s an 1100-yard back at just 220 carries. Just 10 backs reached 1100 last year. 
 
The two big variables are receptions and touchdowns. I have a hard time imagining Moreno catching fewer than 40 passes this year. Kevin Faulk grabbed 58 in a similarly crowded backfield as the Pats’ No. 3 receiver behind Moss and Welker last year under McDaniels — 47 the year before that. If Moreno gets at least 40 catches, it only takes 7.5 yards per to get him to 1400 total yards. 
 
As for touchdowns, Ryan Grant was the only guy to run for 1100 last year and not score at least eight times on the ground. Add another one or two receiving scores at least at that kind of work level 
 
Barring injury, I think Moreno will (conservatively) be good for about 1400 total yards, 40 receptions and 9 total touchdowns.
 

By the way, I do agree on Moss as this year’s No. 1 receiver. 

Jim Day – FantasyFootballWhiz.com: My bold prediction is that John Carlson will be a top 5 TE by year’s end. Carlson had a great rookie year with 55 receptions for 627 yards and 5 TDs. Most of this was done with Seneca Wallace at QB. When Hasselbeck did start, Carlson had 23 catches in 5 starts. Look for them to build on this bond in 2009. The running game is not very solid and outside of new arrival TJ Houshmandzadeh, there are not a lot of receiving options, at least none that can stay on the field for any length of time. Look for Carlson to break out and rival the top TE’s in the game. 
 
Other predictions:  
 
LT once again moves into the top 5 at RB 
Matt Cassel is a big bust in KC 
Roy Williams will not be worth his current ADP. He is not a #1 WR anymore. 
Tashard Choice will be the Cowboys starting RB.

 
Steve Wyremski – retiredrookie.com:

Bold predictions: 
 
1) Larry Johnson doesn’t last until midway through the 2009 season as the Chiefs starting RB.  
2) Thomas Jones doesn’t end the season as the Jets starting RB. 
3) Pierre Garcon has over 500 yards receiving and there’s talk at the end of the year if he’ll pass Gonzo for the #2 spot. 
4) Chris Henry finishes with the best receiving stats on the Bengals. 
5) Miles Austin has better receiving stats than Roy Williams to finish the year. 
6) Desean Wynn will be the starting RB in GB by the end of 2009 and Grant will be useless for FF playoffs.  I’ve never been a fan of grant and if Wynn didn’t have that injury two years ago he’d probably now be the starting RB in GB. 
7) Without Tony G, Bowe gets doubled and struggles to be top 15 WR in 2009.
 

Matt Schauf – RapidDraft.com: DeShawn Wynn never struck me as a feature back, even when he was the primary runner (because of injuries to others) in Green Bay. I think he’ll get more work than he did early last year, but I don’t see him as more than a complementary back. 

Parag Gheewala – Mockumentary:

Not sure if these are bold… 
1.  Marques Colston will be a top 5 WR. 
2.  Domenik Hixon will be the best fantasy WR on the NYG and a WR2. 
3.  Michael Turner is not in the top 10 WR. 
4.  Julius Jones – great value at RB. 
5.  Kellen Winslow returns to prominence (top 5 TE).
 
 

Jared Ferree – What’s Your Fantasy Podcast: I love all the LOVE for Knowshon Moreno.  Smart people who project rather than just reflect will see that Moreno could easily be a top 10 fantasy RB in PPR leagues.  Is he a guarantee, no, but I will take my chances on a very talented RB who is playing for a great offensive line in Denver, who is playing for a QB who checked down an awful lot to a less talented RB named Matt Forte last season.   
 
MJD will not finish in the top 10 fantasy RB unless you get points for being a huge disappointment.   
 
“Kurt Warner misses +8 Games this season” – Not sure where that is coming from at all.  Is he one of the older starting QB’s yeah, so are you predicting the same for Kerry Collins?  Either way, to counter this bold prediction, I will throw out this one. 
 
Kurt Warner will finish in the top 5 among fantasy QB! 
 
Larry Fitzgerald finishes no worse than 3rd among fantasy WRs in ANY format! 
 
Sorry to take shots at Josh, but maybe you can explain to me why you think Warner misses more than 8 games, and why Fitzgerald doesn’t crack the top 5??  I feel those are more, “Throw them out there, and if they hit I look like I knew something no one else knew” predictions rather than “Bold” Predictions.  Just my opinion though!
 

Josh Torrey – FantasyDC.com: Umm. Warner has only started 16 full games in a season 3 Times. And NONE of them were back to back. Last year? Perfect 16 games. I’m not even including his age, he has always been susceptible to the injury bug. Maybe you’re not superstitious but you have the Madden Curse, the Super Bowl Loser curse, a change in OC, change in DC, Warner’s injury history and finally his age. Thanks but no thanks. I’ll pass on both Warner & Fitzgerald at their current ADP.  

Jim Day – FantasyFootballWhiz.com: 
You forgot the “SO THERE” at the end of it….
 

And so ends another edition of the TWITTER ROUNDTABLE! Thanks again for all who took part and we’ll be back with more very, very soon! 

Thanks to the cast from this go-round: 

Jeff Tefertiller (@Jeff Tefertiller) is a Footballguys.com staffer and USA Today BlogSquad member.  Most of all, he’s a football fan and spends a lot of time researching future articles when not spending time with the wife and two little ones.   

Matt Schauf  (@mschauf63) You can now find his work as the lead football writer for PFS and SportsBuff.com or at RapidDraft.com, where he also provides the strategy for the “Hollywood” character in the industry’s first single-player fantasy football game. His IDP writing can also be found at SportingNews.com and in preview magazines for Sporting News, Rotoworld and Football Diehards.

Joshua Torrey (@jmtorrey) is a contributor to FantasyDC.com & is a fan of not just football but football strategy. Joshua enjoys breaking down game tape and team schemes to predict long term fantasy success.

Andrew Garda (@ThunderingBlurb) writes for a myriad of sites including FantasyPros911.com, BleacherReport.com and his own site, ThunderingBlurb.com. He also hosts his own weekly show The Thundering Blurb Football Show every Wednesday (10pm EST) on BlogTalkRadio.com.

Mark Gram (@FF101) Along with Adam Stark and Eric Pedigo, Mark begins the 5th season of Fantasy Football 101 with a fantasy draft special on Aug 13th on www.sportsradio1450.com WFMB am. 

Steve Wyremski’s (@retiredrookie) primary focus is to reach out to NFL and NCAA players for interviews in an effort to bring the players closer to fans.  Dynasty leagues are a huge focus of his, but general football strategy is his love.

Parag Gheewala (@vote4parag) is an average guy with a day job who loves fantasy football and is also the mastermind behind Mockumentary, which started as his Twitter commentary on the first Twitter Fantasy Football Mock Draft.

Jim Day (@Fantasytaz)  has been writing for FF sites since 2000 when he started with Xpertsports.com. Jim started Fantasy Football Whiz in 2007 just as a place to have some fun and conversation with fellow league mates and any other fantasy fanatic that wanted to talk FF.

Jared Ferree (@WYFShow ) hosts the “What’s Your Fantasy” radio show/podcast on Blogtalkradio’s Fantasy Sports Channel with Raymond Summerlin.  He is also a frequent contributor to www.lindyssports.com with both fantasy player rankings and general fantasy football articles. 

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Quarterback Blurb Breakdown: Kurt Warner/Matt Leinart

Can Warner stay healthy and can Leinart succeed if he cant?

Can Warner stay healthy and can Leinart succeed if he can't?

It’s easy to just focus on Warner given the last few years.

While Matt Leinart has floundered with internet drinking photos, poor displays of prowess in his limited game action and perceived general lack of discipline, Kurt Warner keeps putting up great numbers.

At least that’s what it all looks like at first blush.

Warner certainly deserves the accolades for his 2008 season. 

His 4,582 yards were his second highest total ever (second to his 4,830 in 2001) and his 30 touchdowns marked his third highest total. He also finished the season, something he hasn’t done as a starter in – well, let’s just say ‘in some time’.

That’s you’re first red flag though. Call it luck, point to vastly improved offensive line play, say he got cybernetic implants – whatever the reason, he made it through the whole season without missing a game.

Never forget though, in his 11 year old career, he has played a whole season as a starter just three times.

Sure, discount 1998 when he wasn’t a starter or 2004 when Eli Manning stole his job. But historically, the man cannot stay healthy and at 38, isn’t getting more durable with age.

There is a fair chance he will get banged up.

Then why, you may ask, do I have him as a top quarterback?

Well, simply put he’s the starter on a dynamic pass-driven team with two of the best wide receivers in the game at his command. And no, I don’t expect Boldin to be traded at this point. Even if he was, Steve Breaston could step in very ably as well.

Even when he doesn’t play every game ­‑ like in 2007‑ he still put good enough numbers up to be a top 10 quarterback. The weapons at his disposal are just too good and if the blocking keeps up the sky could be the limit.

Which brings us to Matt Leinart who has to make some sort of showing in this, his fifth year  in the league.

He hasn’t done a whole heck of a lot thus far.

Leinart has athletic ability and I believe he has the general skill-set to succeed in the NFL, though after several years of a whole lot of nothing, I doubt he’ll ever reach an elite level.

As much as anything else, his head has gotten in his way. He was reportedly focused more during last season as well as this off-season but frankly I’ll believe it pays off when I see it pay off.

Still, since Warner has had issues with injuries in the past and the offensive weapons are outstanding, you have to consider Leinart. Given the value he could have, it’s worth thinking about snagging him as a security blanket for Warner later in your draft. 

However until you see Leinart have even a moderate version, don’t grab him early expecting him to easily replicate Warner’s numbers if the old man can’t finish.

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